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A large car bombing in Newry this week, and also those incidents last year where two soldiers and a Policeman were killed - I hope this is not a return to the bad old bays. I think it is unlikely because most people on the Nationalist/Republican side support the position Sinn Fein now hold and therefore the numbers supporting the Real IRA and the Continuity IRA are very small. It is said that the Real IRA have about 200 members and the Continuity IRA about 30 or 40.

This all dates back to the split that occured in the mid-1990's when a certain member of the Provisional IRA's Army Council stormed out of a meeting because he was very against them going on ceasefire and was furious that we were considering de-commissioning some of their weapons. He formed the Real IRA, and started recruiting. He eventaully got 200 people from the Proviosnal IRA to join him. Because of his past role he knew the locations of many of the Provisional IRA's secret Arms dumps and started to use them. There was that huge bombing in Omagh in 1998, carried out by the Real IRA which killed 29 people. This man is now in jail, but other disgruntled people who left the Provisional IRA to join the Real IRA are not.

I suspect there will be further bombings but they always give coded telephone warnings like they did this week, so it is likely the only things damaged will be property. What I find interesting is that the Sinn Fein leadership know who all these people are, and I am sure the Security Services do aswell, and yet they are given a long-leash to do what they like. It was said that after the Omagh bombing, the Sinn Fein/Provisional IRA leadership visited the men who run the Real IRA in their homes and told them to declare an immediate ceasefire or they would all be sentenced to death. They were also aparently told to leave Provisional IRA's Arms dumps alone.

What are people's predications for how this might go? I suspect, although I very much hope not, that there may be a bombing in London quite soon - although a bombing anywhere is just as bad, be it in Northern Ireland or in England. I am also curious as to why the Sinn Fein leadership and the Security Services don't go after these people. One theory as to why Sinn Fein don't help the authorities more with this is because slightly disgruntled people in Sinn Fein (and the now dormant and weapon-less Provisional IRA) may become more disgruntled and defect to the Real IRA or the Continuity IRA if Sinn Fein helps nail these guys. It was always said that after the Omagh bombing the reason Sinn Fein were not co-operative in helping the authorities was for that reason.

You sound like a teacher........

Other people on here write lengthy posts but you don't complain.Is it because lengthy posts you agree with are acceptable ?

Max,
"What I find interesting is that the Sinn Fein leadership know who all these people are, and I am sure the Security Services do aswell, and yet they are given a long-leash to do what they like"

You have zero evidence to support the view that "they are given a long leash to do what they like". There is the little problem of providing evidence in a court of law to get these people off the streets. Where that evidence exists, members of the Real IRA/Continuity IRA have been arrested and charged. Where that evidence does not exist, they have not been arrested and charged. Simples!

"It was said that after the Omagh bombing, the Sinn Fein/Provisional IRA leadership visited the men who run the Real IRA in their homes and told them to declare an immediate ceasefire or they would all be sentenced to death". "I am also curious as to why the Sinn Fein leadership and the Security Services don't go after these people."

How long do you think the peace process and shared government would last if Sinn Fein representatives went round to Real IRA members and sentenced them to death?

D

Exactly of course the Security Services know who the players are for the most part anyway but as you said knowing what someone is and catching them in the act/obtaining evidence is an entirely different matter.

Of course in days of past when Security Services did take people off the streets whom they new were active terrorrists then you got the other brigade chanting on about rights, and possibly rightly so depending on your view point but it doesn't change the fact that as usual its a no win situation for the forces of law and order.

Just let the Irish blow each other up if they want to, hopefully when they've destroyed their country they will realise what they could have had with the peace process. If I was brought up in Ireland the first thing I'd do would be to move abroad once I had enough money

Responding to the points raised: I stand by my assertion that the Real IRA are given a long-leash by the authorities. There was a funeral recently were Real IRA men were filmed in their military gear and ballaclava's firing guns into the air. People may think it is disrespectful to arrest someone at a funeral but it has happened in the past - a certain celebrity had a son who was in hiding because he was wanted by the Police, he showed up at his dad's funeral and the Police nicked him. They waited till after it was over, but nicked him all the same. The Real IRA have political status and are therefore not viewed the same way as common criminals. Seeing as the special prisons, where the paramilitary guys were all held over many years, are now closed, I am not sure where they would put them now anyway. The former leader of the Real IRA, the man who was leader at the time of the Omagh bombing, is in jail in the Republic of Ireland. Although his wife is high up in the organisation and you sometimes see her on TV (she denies she has anything to do with the Real IRA though).

On the issue of gathering evidence to nick and convict these people, if they are under surveillance all the time then they would lead the authorities to where their arms stash's are, and where all their bomb making material is kept. I am sure the authorites know who they all are, and where all their gear is, because through informers and through surveillance, they will have that information. The Real IRA are not in any way as good at covering their tracks as certain sections of the Provisional IRA were - the South Armagh brigade of the Provisonal IRA had their stash's so well hidden that the Security Services and the Army had no idea where they were. South Armagh was so dangerous then that it was dubbed 'bandit country', and the Army had to fly everywhere as the roads were too dangerous to travel on. Even their garbage had to be flown out by helicopter. Those days are over and the small breakway faction that is the Real IRA wont be as advanced as the South Armagh Provo's used to be, and won't be able to make a mockery of the Army and the Secutiry Services like they did.

The question of whether the Peace Process would hold if the leadership of Sinn Fein told the Real IRA to stop, and threatened them to do so, like they did after Omagh in 1998. The Provisional IRA was a fully equppied military force then, unlike now, and the Peace Process was in place then. The SinnFein/IRA leadership threatened the Real IRA, who agreed to go on a long ceasefire out of fear that the Provo's would kill them, and the Peace Process STILL held even in spite of this. It could be done again now although as Sinn Fein's military wing, the Provisional IRA, has disarmed and it is debatable as to whether PIRA even exists now, then any Sinn Fein threat towards the Real IRA will not be as frightening as it was back in 1998.

"I stand by my assertion that the Real IRA are given a long-leash by the authorities. There was a funeral recently were Real IRA men were filmed in their military gear and ballaclava's firing guns into the air."

I repeat you have absolutely no evidence of merit. Obviously there is a difference between the offence of people killing soldiers and a few lads in fancy dress at a funeral. As an example of giving the Real IRA a long leash that is pathetic!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/u ... 907155.ece

[urlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/18/real- ... 62092.html[/url]

"On the issue of gathering evidence to nick and convict these people, if they are under surveillance all the time then they would lead the authorities to where their arms stash's are, and where all their bomb making material is kept."

Thank you for your security analysis, Max. I will pass it on to MI5. You may have noticed that with terrorists groups wherever they may be, even the most stringent security measures such as those in Israel do not always prevent terrorists getting through with their attacks. Likewise subsequent arrests and convictions are not necessarily made.

"The SinnFein/IRA leadership threatened the Real IRA, who agreed to go on a long ceasefire out of fear that the Provo's would kill them, and the Peace Process STILL held even in spite of this."

You seem to be totally confused yet again. There is no comparison between 1998 and 2010. Government has been devolved to Stormont. Sinn Fein has renounced war and all violence and are part of a democratic, power sharing government. Their stockpiles of weapons have been verifiably decommissioned. Justice is in the process of being devolved. How can there POSSIBLY be a scenario whereby the democratically elected Stormont government now return to acting like gangsters and threatening to kill people who don't toe the line.

D

Even if you won't reply I will answer. A few guys in fancy dress at a funeral? Military uniform actually, and they were firing guns into the air. I think if I did that at a funeral I might be arrested.

To compare them with many other terrorist organisations is not a reasonable comparison. I have not heard of many other groups having annual 'army conventions' where they elect their leadership - meetings where members, who are also secretly on the payroll of the Security Services, are in attendance and who then let the Security Services know who all the leadership is.

Sinn Fein being in Government never stopped illegal activity by Sinn Fein/Provisional IRA before. The first Stormont Assembly, which had Martin McGuinness as Education minister, was suspended because of a Sinn Fein/ PIRA spy ring that was in operation at Stormont - information was being compiled on the home addresses of 2,000 former prison officers, and many other things too. The Northern Bank robbery and the Robert McCartney murder all happened subsequent to that as well.