egafd.com

Well, well,

Six in the morning and one of the surprises of the election is that Cleggie and the Lib Dems appear to have done worse than they did last time round.

The reasons for this seem to be:

1. Breaking through for a third party in a first past the post election is obvously really, really hard.

2. The Jedward factor that Cleggie generated around the time of the first tv debate didnt last. Cleggie used the we are new, different - not tainted by the old, corrupt parties shtick throughout that debate without much reference to actual policies. The problem with this approach is that it obviously isn't true. The Liberals are as old as the other two mainstream parties and the Libs have been banging on about the need for electoral reform, the joys of EU land etc etc for decades.

The only thing particularly new and fresh about the Lib Dems is that they haven't been voted into power in Westminster for a century which isnt the sort of newness you want really.

3. If you are trying to get former Conservatives or former Labour voters to vote for you, the Lib Dems needed to explain as a third party what might happen in the event of a hung parliament. Over just one weekend, Clegg said first the Lib Dems wouldnt work with Labour at all if they came third; then he said they would, provided Brown resigned; then he said the Lib Dems could in any circumstances work with Labour and with the Tories as well.

What kind of situation is that for the likes of Jim Slip who hates Gordon Brown. Vote Cleggie and allow Gordon to stay in power. Or alternatively for Bob Singleton - vote Cleggie and allow Cameron in.?

4. Cleggie got found out about his policies. Eventually, the debate started to talk about policies and in the third debate where Cleggie back-pedalled about the euro and at first denied he was in favour of an amnesty for some illegal immigrants, you got the impression that Gordon Brown knew more about the Lib Dem manifesto than Cleggie did.

The main thing now is that Cleggie doesnt totally disgrace himself by trying to sort out a deal with Cameron. That would be the final insult for those that have voted for the party with the "most radical" agenda.

Cheers
D

He bombed because he is a watered down Tory cunt

The Liberal Democratic party manifesto has far far more in common with the Labour party manifesto than with the Conservatives.

It was Clegg who stated that the Cameron plan on cuts was just downright wrong and it was Clegg who said that Cameron had aligned himself with a "load of nutters" in Europe.

The word appears to be that senior Conservatives are giving Cameron the nod that they are not in favour of any kind of electoral reform.

Brown has indicated that the Labour party are willing to carry out electoral reforms.

In the above circumstances if Clegg and the Lib Dems with their overall policy of fairness etc etc. do a deal with Cameron it will be one of the biggest betrayals in election history. And the Lib Dems will rightly nose dive back into electoral obscurity.

Cheers
D

"one of the surprises of the election is that Cleggie and the Lib Dems appear to have done worse than they did last time round."


Err.... I thought the Liberal Democrat vote was up on last time around.

A bad night for the Lib Dems but hardly Clegg's fault. People are still scared of moving away from the old two parties.

Clegg should go for electoral reform, and I doubt the Tories will go for that. He said that the party with the most votes should get first choice and so that should be Cameron. But, he said without electoral reform he won't make a deal. Giving Cameron first refusal is how it should be as the current democratic system of ours has Tories just in lead. I'd prefer electoral reform with a Lab/Lib pact, but it would be undemocratic for Clegg to ignore Cameron when the country has spoken.

Now, despite a bad showing, lets look at why it looks worse for Lib Dems due to silly FPTP system:

1. Lib Dem vote goes up 1% from 2005 but they get 10% FEWER seats in parliament.

2. In contrast (for anyone moaning Labour are benefiting from FPTP) the Tories got 3.9% for of the vote from 2005 yet get 44% MORE seats in parliament.

The numbers of voters needed per seat are as follows:

Labour: 33,000 votes per MP in parliament.

Conservatives: 35,000 votes per MP in parliament.

Liberal Democrats: 126,000 votes per MP in parliament.

Green Party 200,000 votes per MP in parliament.

No party outside the big two is going to get anywhere near equal footing, never mind an outright majority, without getting shut of an antiquated, flawed system. Libe Dems are only 6% behind Labour in the country's vote share yet have around 79%+ fewer seats. That's shouldn't be the democracy of a 21st century, 1st world nation. It really is 'every vote is equal, some votes are just more equal than others.

Looks like Clegg is going to prop up the tories,so much for for fairness.

When I last looked prior to posting, the Lib Dems were down both in estimated seats and % vote.

It would appear now that they are down 5 seats on a 1% increase in vote.

Given that their effort like all parties is in those marginal seats, a number of which they lost it seems reasonable to assume that overall they haven't done as well as last time round.

Even if you argue the toss about % vote v. seats lost, no-one can dispute that given the huge increase of publicity that Clegg got and all the attendant Cleggmania, this is an enormously disappointing result for the Lib Dems, given they were hoping to break through the 100 seat barrier.

Cheers
D

"A bad night for the Lib Dems but hardly Clegg's fault. People are still scared of moving away from the old two parties."

They are scared of moving away from the old two parties to the old, never been elected for a century party if they dont know who they were actually voting for (See point 3 in my initial post.)

I would be amazed if there aren't hundreds of thousands of voters who bought the "we are the radical party with added fairness" spiel from Cleggie and don't want the Lib Dems even to discuss coalition or "agreements" with a Conservative party that is committed to swingeing cuts in the first year at the same time as promising inheritance tax repeal for the richest in our society and has fundamental differences with the Lib Dems party on electoral reform, defence, foreign policy, "fairness", timing of the cuts etc etc.

IF they do come to some arrangement, Sam "I would rather eat my face than vote Conservative" Slater, isn't this a case of you are getting someone else to eat your face for you? The result would be the same. Your vote would have helped Cameron become Prime Minister and your face has been chewed up?

Not really what you, Bob, mrcmfister, Mike Freeman etc would have hoped for surely?

Cheers
D

Considering the Lib Dems need an average of 126,000 votes to claim one seat while the Tories and Labour would get nearly 4 seats for the same amount of voters, many people still think a Lib Dem vote is a wasted vote. Many, in principle, agree with Lib Dem policies but in reality are still more interested in voting to keep out either Labour or the Conservatives.

Still, more and more young people are voting Lib Dem which gives hope for the future - especially if we get a more proportional electoral process.

[quote]IF they do come to some arrangement, Sam "I would rather eat my face than vote Conservative" Slater, isn't this a case of you are getting someone else to eat your face for you? The result would be the same.[/quote]

A Lib/Con pact doesn't look as attractive as a Lib/Lab pact, I'll admit. Vince Cable and Gordon Brown know their economics and I trust them a hell of a lot more when it comes to getting us out of this financial crisis than anyone the Tories can dig up. Still, if Clegg can persuade Cameron to help close the tax loopholes for the rich and force a fairer electoral system I'll be quietly content and be willing to see how things go.

Part of me wants Clegg to say 'no deal' to anyone and then for Brown to let Cameron try and govern with a minority. Part of me believes that the Tories' policies will send us into yet another recession and in the long term this might be good (ie: remind people what the Tories are like). Maybe then I'm just letting someone take a bite out of my face, rather than eating it all and I can hide the scars with a beard !happy!

I guess we'd at least find out if the Tories really have moved into the 21st century or whether they're the same old mix of Eton toffs and selfish Thatcherites.